The KDM Dairy Report 9/17/2023


Higher prices are starting to take a bite out of demand.  With the rest of the worlds dairy prices bellow the US.  Export demand has tapered off.  Still good exports to Mexico and steady domestic demand has held prices steady.  The USDA milk production report is out this next week and expectations are for lower milk production for August compared to last year. 

Weekly Spot Prices
Weekly Future Prices

Cheese: Milk volumes are in balance with cheesemaking capabilities in the West, and plant managers in the region say they are operating steady production schedules. In the Northeast, heightened demand for milk from Class I processors is pulling on supplies which previously made their way to regional cheesemakers. Contacts say labor issues persist in the Northeast but note strong cheddar cheese production. Milk volumes are somewhat snug in the Midwest, and contacts continue to report spot milk prices above Class III. Cheese production varies in the region, as some processors have scheduled downtime but others are operating full schedules. Cheese demand is somewhat steady in the Midwest. Contacts in the Northeast and West report steady demand from retail and food service cheese purchasers. Bullish market tones for cheese, seen in recent weeks, are waning somewhat.  (USDA Cheese Highlights)

Butter: Cream supplies are tight throughout the country, and contacts in the East report demand from butter makers is outpacing cream supply. Butter churning is somewhat active in the Central region. East region butter makers say labor issues have interrupted some production schedules. Meanwhile in the West, contacts report mixed butter production as some churns are running steadily, while tight cream volumes are causing some butter makers to run below capacity. Demand for butter from retail and food service customers is steady to strong. Contacts in the Central region say butter interest is unchanged and meeting expectations for this time of year.  . (USDA Butter Highlights)

Dry Whey: The dry whey price range contracted, and the top of the mostly price series moved slightly lower. Demand is steady. Stakeholders indicate buyers showing more activity, increased movement of nonbrand preferred loads, and increased purchasing for beyond immediate needs in recent weeks. A few manufacturers relay slight tightness in overall available supplies and comparatively tighter bleached dry whey supplies, but inventory is available to meet current spot market demand. Demand from international purchasers is moderate. Although milk output is lower, cheese manufacturers are making enough liquid whey to keep dry whey production steady. That said, supply and production schedules are reported as tighter. Some processors capable of whey protein concentrate and dry whey manufacturing, are focusing on whey protein concentrate production.  (USDA Dry Whey)

Milk Production report will be out this next week and most estimates are for lower milk production.  It was a hot August and cow numbers should be down from last year.  Depending on how much of a drop there is and the size of the herd, this report could give the market a boost.  Recommendation buy some calls before the report in Dec 23 through Apr 24 and if there is a rally sell into them.  Demand going into 2024 is a big question mark and it is time to get some coverage going into the new year.