The KDM Dairy Report 9/24/2021


Big week for reports this week with starting off the week with the production report.  With August production up 1.1 from 2020 and down 0.1 from July.  This lead to not much of a response on the futures market as most traders read this as steady to a little bit supportive.  Cold Storage came out next this week with total natural cheese stocks down 1 percent from the previous month but up 4 percent from the previous year.  This was read by most traders to be steady to a little negative as typically we have a larger draw down during this time of year.  See graphs bellow, also American Cheese went up in cold storage holdings even though over all cheese stocks went down.

Milk Production
Cold Storage

Cheese markets narrowed there range this week on blocks and barrels.  The week finished with blocks at 1.7075 and barrels at 1.60.  Cheese production was off this week as cheese makers were down for scheduled maintenance.  This added to the spot milk supply and prices were reported from 25 cents under to 75 cents over class 3 in the Midwest.  Cheese stocks are available, particularly in the Western region were cheese plants were running full schedules.  Overall market tone is steady.

Butter: Cream supplies are available and moving from the Western region to the Midwest.  Production schedules are steady and butter is available for the spot market.  Unsalted butter is a little tighter then salted with strong demand in the domestic and export market for unsalted butter.  Retail sales are picking up ahead as we head into the fall.  Food service demand is fairly steady overall.  Bulk butter is ranging from 1 to 8 cent above the market this week.

Dry whey prices increase this week on the bottom of the range.  Demand is not overwhelming but production is off as some cheese plants were down for scheduled maintenance. Export interest is good although trucking and port issues have created a bottleneck the out flow and forced more whey into the domestic market.  Animal feed whey demand is strong right now giving a lift to the market this week.  Overall dry whey market tone is steady.

Grains have had a relatively positive week, China shopping for wheat, confirmed draught conditions, specifically, Oklahoma where 80% of the State is abnormally Dry.  

December corn has support at 5.10 with resistance at 5.48.  closing today near 5.25 I would consider Buying your corn feeding needs through March using December 5.50 calls at 12 cents or better.  cheap insurance for a Bin Closing rally that can occur mid-November.  Buying March Corn at the market(5.33) then buying 5.00 December puts for 12 cents protection will work also. Call if we can help with these or other strategies for your grain or Dairy operation.